Al Jazeera English: US and Israel: Good cop/bad cop on Iran

New York, NY - "Everyone who goes to the movies knows about a game police interrogators play called "Good Cop/Bad Cop". The "good" cop tries to seduce the accused, promising he will go easy if there is co-operation.

The "bad" cop is more menacing, threatening and sometimes inflicts brutality to force admissions or a confession. The duo coordinates their approaches to give their victims a false sense that they can wriggle out of their problems with the bad by cooperating with the good. Tel Aviv and Washington are playing this game with Iran."

With all of the posturing, it is easy to lose site that Israel lacks the air capability to attack Iran. The US would need to support an Israeli attack with KC-10 tankers and the B-2 bombers carrying two 30,000 pound Mother of All Bombs (MOB) bunker busters.

Israel would also have to overfly Iraqi airspace both inbound and outbound and would likely have some aircraft shot down. Iran would probably get warning of the attacks because the Russians upgraded a big radar site in Syria. 

Russia could up the ante by deploying the S-300 air defense system into Iran. The Russians may be restrained by Obama suggesting the Jackson-Vanik amendment could be rescinded in his second term.

The Russians want to trade with the US and this is probably the only reason they are restrained in Iran.

Of course, if the GOP wins the 2012 election, something that seems improbable, they would never trade with Russia.  Republicans see Russia as an ideological enemy.

Enemies are needed to justify massive defense spending that the GOP prefers. 

See the complete article at: US and Israel: Good cop/bad cop on Iran - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

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NY Times: Israeli air capabilities against Iran are limited.

The only aircraft capable of attacking Iranian  nuclear sites are F-15E Strike Eagle fighter bombers that can carry a 5,000 lb. payload. to drop GB-28 bunker buster bombs on nuclear facilities at Nanantz and Fordo.

GBU-28 bunker buster. 

Israel would need more than the eight Israel had eight KC-707 American-made tankers they have in their inventory. The tankers would probably have to fly at around 50,000 feet to survive over Iran. 

Because the  F-15E would be loaded down with the GBU-28s, their range and altitude would be limited and require numerous aerial refuels both inbound and outbound from Iran. 

The Israelis are likely trying to get the US to use its B-2 bombers that carry two new 30,000 lb. bunker busting bombs the US is developing. 

Obama is probably refusing the request for combat bomber support that is angering both the Israeli government of Benjamin Natenayahu and the Republicans on the Hill. 

KC-10 tanker

The Israelis may also try to get some of the newer KC-10 tankers or the older Kc-135s.  The KC-135s have been mothballed so retrofitting them would take months. 

The Israelis would also have to greatly expand its tanker fleet to launch a successful air operation. 

Intrade predicts less than a 50 per cent probability that Israel will attack Iran before the end of the year:

see the complete NYT article at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/world/middleeast/iran-raid-seen-as-complex-task-for-israeli-military.html

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