Thursday, December 29, 2011

Who is really winning in Iowa?

The new CNN-ORC International Iowa poll made news on 12/28/2011 says 

Mitt Romney is the leader with 25 percent.
Ron Paul --22 percent.
Rick Santorum--16 percent
Newt Gingrich--14 percent
Rick Perry earned--11 percent.
Michele Bachmann --9 percent.

The Iowa Public Policy Poll a day earlier has very different results:

Ron Paul is the leader at 24 percent
Mitt Romney--20 percent
Newt Gingrich--13 perccent
Michele Bachmann --11 percent
Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10 percent
Jon Huntsman --4 per cent,
Buddy Roemer --2 per cent

Is this what a difference a day makes. Possibly, because Romney dropped a $700,000 money bomb on the Iowa primary which elevated him in the polls.

But the PPP poll may be more accurate because it polled independents, something the CNN poll may not have done. Independents can vote in the Iowa primary and Paul has a clear advantage with them over Romney.

The CNN/Time poll says it was conducted by ORC International from Dec. 21-24 and Dec. 26-27, with 452 voters who are likely to participate in the Iowa Republican caucus. The poll does not indicate if any of those likely voters are independents.

Update: The CNN poll, conducted by telephone between December 21 and 27, surveyed 999 registered Republicans in Iowa, including 452 likely voters, who were identified by their stated intention to participate in the 2012 primary, interest in the campaign to date and voting history.

The CNN has an error margin of +/-4.5 percentage points.

PPP surveyed 597 likely Republican caucus voters from December 16 to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%.

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