Monday, August 31, 2009

When the going gets tough, the tough get going

Rightardia comment: Obama has activated his political organization, Organizing for America. A lot can change in the next year and the Democrats have resiliency. A recent Gallup Poll also indicates that Republicans in Congress have a 13 per cent approval rating. Democrats in Congress have a 55 per cent approval rating. Independents represented by Blue Dog Democrats aren't much better than the GOP at 22 per cent.

If a dimwit like George Bush could gain congressional seats in the 2002 elections, the Democrats should be able to as well. If there is a will, there is a way. A lot will depend on how the Democrats handle health care.

The Democrats do have a nuclear keep it simple stupid option. Extend Medicare to other Americans. We have CHIPS, S-CHIPS, and Medicaid. All could be rolled into a single unified program and additional age groups could be phased in over time.

JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 8/31/09 4:50 AM EDT

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers predict an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House. this will not be enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu. The chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats.

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”

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