Monday, August 6, 2012

DCCC: Democrats have a 6 -point lead against most vulnerable Republicans

  • Republican incumbents’ job approval has eroded from a 15-point lead (39 – 24 percent) in March of 2011 to even (36-36 percent) today.
  • A majority of voters (50-40 percent) say they cannot vote to re-elect their incumbent House Republican.
  • Republicans have lost their advantage with seniors and now are nearly tied with Democrats among seniors in the generic Congressional ballot (45 – 47%). According to 2010 exit poling, Republicans won seniors by 21 points (38 – 59 percent).
Voters in these vulnerable House Republican-held seats prefer the Democrats plan to “ask the wealthiest to pay a great share of taxes to address our problems and the deficits” instead of the Republicans who “won’t vote for any tax increase” by 7 points (50 – 43 percent).
  • In these top-tier districts of vulnerable Republicans, voters think Democrats will do a better job on health care and on Medicare than Republicans by 11 points (50 – 39 percent).
  • Voters believe Democratic challengers are more likely to be on their side (46 – 39 percent) and bring the right kind of change (48 - 40 percent).
House Republican incumbents vote for the Republican (Ryan) budget, and its impact on seniors raised doubts with 66 percent of voters – making it the top-testing negative.

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