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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

China Daily: The Inflation monster


As the US comes out of the recession and unemployment drops, inflation will be a big concern. 

Wirehead has a close relative that is a rightard Tea Bagger dittohead type. He makes about $30K a year and wants to speculate on the stock market as a part time day trader to make some extra cash. 

According to the Tea Bagger the conservative Media like Fox News are much better at these money making opportunities. Wirehead told him that he would be better off buying stock and holding it long term. 

The young man had correctly perceived that Ford Motor Corporation was doing well and had greatly improved quality well before the automaker bailout. 

If he had taken $5,000 of his money and invested in it Ford five years ago,  it would be worth about $35,000 today with the stock increases and splits. 

Instead he bought guns and ammo. He may have been thinking there would be a revolution after the Obama election. Or there was an ammo shortage and he could speculate on the inflated value of ammo. 

Who knows? In any event, he has nearly $3,000 worth of ammo sitting around his house.

Wirehead has told the young man he needs to buy a house, a critical asset he will need to lower his taxes and also when he goes into retirement in about 25 years. 

The ditto head's view is that he wants to wait until the real estate market bottoms out that may occur next year, then he will buy. He uses the old truism, "I want to buy low and sell high."

Wirehead told him that even if he bought a exactly the right time, which is very unlikely, interest rates on houses could rise because of inflation. Therefore it would be unlikely that he would come out any better than if he bought a house right now. 

Again, this is a long term  thinking v. short term thinking. You will come ahead if you make long term strategic moves rather than engage in a series of short term risky quick buck endeavors.

Wirehead also told his relative that wanted to make some extra cash as a day trader. "What happens if you lose money,"  he asked the Tea Bagger? Wirehead also noted that a lot of MBA's had  lost their shirts on day trading during the GWB era.

Apparently the relative had never considered the outcome of losing money at all.

Well, we can't all be progressives and liberals, can we? We cannot all be realists either.

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