by David Korn
Every time I run into Charlie Cook, one of the veteran political handicappers of Washington, I say to him, "So?" He knows what I'm asking: Will the Republicans win back the House in November?
For months now, he has told me -- and plenty of others -- that the House is within the grasp of the GOP, which needs to pick up 39 seats to take control.
As the savvy and nonpartisan Cook has explained, when he and the number-crunchers in his shop examine the House races one by one, they have spotted 30 or so contests where the Democrats are likely to lose the seat.
These calculations, Cook has said, do not take into account any possible anti-Democratic or anti-incumbent wave. If such a tsunami of voter sentiment is indeed heading toward Capitol Hill, gaining another nine seats is quite possible for the Repubs -- and, presto, Rep. John Boehner is speaker.
Cook's analysis has history on its side: The party in charge of the White House almost always gets clobbered in the first midterm elections, and high unemployment usually spells doom for the folks in charge.
Recent polls have shown Democrats with a slight edge when voters are asked whether they prefer a generic Democratic or Republican congressional candidate. Yet a Gallup survey found that Republican voters are far more enthusiastic about the 2010 congressional elections.
Half the GOPers said they were pumped up to vote; only 28 percent of the Dems reported they were jazzed. With less than 100 days to go, Cook's dire Democratic prognostication still seems realistic.
This is why his latest column was intriguing. Noting that he has long been forecasting that the Republicans are close to bouncing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Cook evaluated the case made by Democratic strategists who insist that their party has a good shot at retaining the House. And it's not a bad argument.
As Cook reports, the D's say they are likely to win four House seats now held by Republicans, including those of Delaware's Michael Castle and Illinois' Mark Kirk, who each are running for Senate.
There are a handful of other House GOP incumbents the D's believe they might be able to topple. This means, in the Dems' estimation, that the Republicans must win not 39 seats now held by Democrats but 43.
Subscribe to the Rightardia feed: feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/IGiu
Netcraft rank: 14896
http://toolbar.netcraft.com/site_report?url=http://rightardia.blogspot.com
For months now, he has told me -- and plenty of others -- that the House is within the grasp of the GOP, which needs to pick up 39 seats to take control.
As the savvy and nonpartisan Cook has explained, when he and the number-crunchers in his shop examine the House races one by one, they have spotted 30 or so contests where the Democrats are likely to lose the seat.
These calculations, Cook has said, do not take into account any possible anti-Democratic or anti-incumbent wave. If such a tsunami of voter sentiment is indeed heading toward Capitol Hill, gaining another nine seats is quite possible for the Repubs -- and, presto, Rep. John Boehner is speaker.
Cook's analysis has history on its side: The party in charge of the White House almost always gets clobbered in the first midterm elections, and high unemployment usually spells doom for the folks in charge.
Recent polls have shown Democrats with a slight edge when voters are asked whether they prefer a generic Democratic or Republican congressional candidate. Yet a Gallup survey found that Republican voters are far more enthusiastic about the 2010 congressional elections.
Half the GOPers said they were pumped up to vote; only 28 percent of the Dems reported they were jazzed. With less than 100 days to go, Cook's dire Democratic prognostication still seems realistic.
This is why his latest column was intriguing. Noting that he has long been forecasting that the Republicans are close to bouncing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Cook evaluated the case made by Democratic strategists who insist that their party has a good shot at retaining the House. And it's not a bad argument.
As Cook reports, the D's say they are likely to win four House seats now held by Republicans, including those of Delaware's Michael Castle and Illinois' Mark Kirk, who each are running for Senate.
There are a handful of other House GOP incumbents the D's believe they might be able to topple. This means, in the Dems' estimation, that the Republicans must win not 39 seats now held by Democrats but 43.
Subscribe to the Rightardia feed: feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/IGiu
Netcraft rank: 14896
http://toolbar.netcraft.com/site_report?url=http://rightardia.blogspot.com
No comments:
Post a Comment