Thursday, July 30, 2009

Intrade Update: Sotomayor confirmation and 2012 Republican nominee

Sonia Sotomayor Confirmation  

The Senate Judiciary Committee voted on Tuesday to approve Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to the Supreme Court. The 13-6 vote, largely along party lines, clears the way for a full Senate vote and her likely confirmation.    

How many Senators will vote to confirm Sotomayor? Our market shows a 95.0% chance she will receive at least 65 votes and a 20.0% chance of receiving 70 or more votes.  

2012 Republican Nominee   

The resignation of Sarah Palin as Governor of Alaska has ignited speculation she intends to run for president in 2012. There has been no official announcement from last year's Republican vice-presidential nominee but she remains the most traded potential candidate in our market for the 2012 Republican nominee. 

Palin is given a 15.5% probability of securing the nomination, some distance behind market leader Mitt Romney on 33.9%. Other current contenders include Bobby Jindal (15.9%), Newt Gingrich (14.4%), Mike Huckabee (13.9%) and Tim Pawlenty (12.1%).

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