Bill Maher's overtime, Ep. 264 October 26, 2012

Ep. 264 October 26, 2012 - Overtime

The Panel

Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) was Chair of the House Financial Services Committee from 2007-2010 and oversaw the passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. He recently responded to the Log Cabin Republicans’ endorsement of Mitt Romney in a video for the "Mitt Gets Worse" campaign.


The Panel:

Chrystia Freeland is the author of Plutocrats and the Global Editor-At-Large of Thomson Reuters. Earlier this month, Freeland wrote an opinion piece on government efficiency called "For Government, It Is Not Just Size That Matters."

Twitter: @cafreeland

Eliot Spitzer is the former Governor of New York (D) and host of Current TV's "Viewpoint with Eliot Spitzer." His take on the third and final presidential debate appears on Slate.


Michael Steele is the former Chair of the Republican National Committee and a frequent contributor to MSNBC. His website is steeleforum.com.

Twitter: @Steele_Michael

Nate Silver will join the panel mid-show. He is the creator of FiveThirtyEight.com and author of The Signal and the Noise. Silver stirred up some controversy in his recent blog post, "Gallup vs. the World", in which he highlighted the poor track record of the Gallup national tracking polls.

Twitter: @fivethirtyeight



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See anything in common?

Intrade predicts Mittens has a 27 per cent change of election, Nate Silver says 20.3 per cent and IPredict-19.4 per cent.

Obama now has a 10-point lead in Ohio, a must win state for Mittens.

Can the outcome of the presidential election be clearer? Keep in mind, too, that Intrade is an Irish company and IPredict is in NZ.

Any suggestions this data has a liberal media bias is bogus.

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Democratic Underground: Obama's Lead is Starting to Look Insurmountable

According to Nate Silver, Obama is currently up by 3.7 per cent.. No candidate in the past 50 years has lost a lead that big. 

No candidate with more than 47 per cent of the vote in late September has ever lost. Obama is currently at 48.3%.
Nate Silver: Obama's Lead is Starting to Look Insurmountable - Democratic Underground:

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Nate Silver 538 Blog: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite

"(Y)ou’ll notice that our forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6. I’ll explain a little bit more about how the model comes to that conclusion in a moment, but the intuition behind it is pretty simple:

1.  Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.  
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below-average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race. 
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose."

Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite - NYTimes.com: 

'via Blog this'

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Huffington Post: Obama Leads Romney By 7 Points As Negative Ads Take Toll

TPM electoral projection

Mittens is done. Stick a fork in him! 

Rightardia always looked at the forthcoming presidential election as a "no brainer."

We could not thinks of any compelling reason why Americans would want to give the presidency to a one per cent jackwagon like Mitt Romney.

Obama Leads Romney By 7 Points As Negative Ads Take Toll:

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Will Mittens withdraw for the race?

Mittens dithering over releasing his taxes has already affected his Intrade chances, but the Gallup numbers are unchanged with Obama having a 2 point national advantage.

Nate Silver shows Obama with a 298 to 240 electoral advantage. A candidate needs 271 to win,

The Huffington Post posits a 274 to 191 advantage.

Will Mittens resign?  Rightardia thinks it is a distinct possibility.

We suspect Romney may be involved in the UBS tax evasion scandal that the IRS has been quietly allowing violators to settle after paying huge financial penalties.

Mittens probably realized by now that he is unlikely to win this election. He my decide to cut his loses and throw in the towel.


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NY Times: Another Recount in Florida?

(A) new poll from Mason-Dixon, released on Saturday, that shows President Obama with a nominal 1-percentage-point lead there over Mitt Romney.

Nate Silver's model shows Florida as close as can be. It projects the Nov. 6 result as Mr. Obama 49.5 percent, Mr. Romney 49.4 percent — an outcome that would be close enough to trigger another recount.

It is clear why Gov. Rick Scott is trying to purge the voter rolls of "undocumented workers" in such a close race.

However, Organizing for Obama (OFO) just geared up two weeks ago. The Major has talked to 100s of FL Democrats who are very enthusiastic about the president's reelection.

see July 14: Another Recount in Florida? - NYTimes.com

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NYTimes.com's Nate Silver: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race?

"There is, of course, no guarantee that things will remain as stable straight through to Election Day. But there have been some cycles – most notably 2004, which this race resembles in some ways – in which we were seeing pretty much the same numbers for weeks or even months on end."

July 11: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race? - NYTimes.com

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Nate Silver's 538 blog predictions

Nate Silver is an uncannily accurate political statistician. He shows Obama winning the electoral vote as does the Huffington Post. Gallup also shows the president with a 4 point advantage today, but the electoral vote is what wins an election.

Obama also has a significant lead in the chance of winning, actually higher than the percentages in the Intrade Predictive Markets.

FL is almost too close to call when you look at the states:

source: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

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NYTimes.com: Democrats' Odds of Retaining Senate Improve

By NATE SILVER

"When we last took an overview of Senate races in December, Republicans appeared to be slight favorites to take control from Democrats, with a net gain of four to five seats representing the most likely outcome.

Since then, however, Republican fortunes have diminished somewhat because of problems with the quality of some candidates and key retirements . . ."

photo: http://articles.businessinsider.com

See the rest of the article at Democrats' Odds of Retaining Senate Improve - NYTimes.com

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Al Jazeera English: Which economy is it, stupid?

New York, NY - Since James Carville famously wrote "The Economy, Stupid" in Bill Clinton's campaign headquarters, the mass public has become increasingly familiar with what is one of the more important "facts" discovered by political scientists: US presidential elections are undoubtedly affected by the state of the economy.

The question of which part of the economy matters most, however, still remains unsolved. Nate Silver has two very interesting recent posts on this topic. In one, he makes the claim that the key figure is 150,000 jobs per month: if the US economy performs better than that between now and the elections, Obama has a good chance of being elected . . .

See the complete article at: Which economy is it, stupid? - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

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Beck gets higher marks than Limbaugh

Nate Silver, digging through a new NBC/ WSJ poll, notes that 24 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Glen Beck, while 19 percent having an unfavorable view. That breaks down to 13 percent very positive and 11 percent somewhat positive views, as opposed to 14 and 5 percent on the other end. "That leaves 57 percent who either don't know Beck or are indifferent toward him," Silver writes.

This compares quite favorably to, for example, Rush Limbaugh, who was the subject of a similar question in the NBC/WSJ poll in June. Limbaugh was regarded favorably by 23 percent of Americans, but unfavorably by 50 percent -- including 37 percent who held a strongly negative view.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0909/Beck_vs_Limbaugh_538_edition.html

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