ScienceDaily (June 10, 2011) — Candidates are making frequent stops in New Hampshire and Iowa for good reason. . Research by a Brown University economist, published in The Journal of Political Economy, shows that voters in early primary states have a disproportionate influence on who gets elected.
Voters in states with early primary races such as Iowa and New Hampshire have up to five times the influence of voters in later states in selecting presidential candidates. this conclusion is based on research by Brown University economist Brian Knight.
The paper is co-authored by Nathan Schiff and published in The Journal of Political Economy.
"Evidence that early voters have a disproportionate influence over the selection of candidates violates 'one person-one vote' -- a democratic ideal on which our nation is based."
Knight and Schiff developed a statistical model that examines how daily polling data responds to returns from presidential primaries.
In the model, candidates can benefit from momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations.
According to their research, Schiff and Knight predict that if states other than Iowa and New Hampshire had voted first in 2004, the Democratic nominee may have been John Edwards rather than John Kerry. . .
Story Source:
The above story is reprinted (with editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily staff) from materials provided by Brown University.
Journal Reference:
- Brian Knight, Nathan Schiff. Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries. The Journal of Political Economy, 2010; 118 (6): 1110 DOI:10.1086/658372
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