R i g h t a r d i a: Rightardia election predictions

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Rightardia election predictions

The US House is going to the Republicans with John Boehner likely to be the new Speaker of the Houise. Nancy Pelosi is expected to retire before the new 112th Congress convenes.

The Senate looks like it will stay in Democratic hands. Notice the big bump the Democrats took this morning on Intrade.

Nate Silvers's 587 blog agrees. "While Republicans retain a plausible path toward taking control of the Senate on Tuesday night, it would involve their winning at least two seats in which they appear to be underdogs, while simultaneously avoiding upsets in several other races in which they are narrowly favored.

Unless the Republicans have a significant wind at their backs and are over-performing in most parts of the country, their chances of doing so are slim."

The state that appears to have gotten away from Republicans is West Virginia, where Joe Manchin III, a Democrat running far to his right, appears to have created some space in the polls between himself and his Republican opponent . . ."

The GOP will also make headway in the governor's races which could have a big impact on congressional reapportionments. Many of the Southern states will pick up new seats for congress. Both the governors and the state houses will have to create new districts especially in the South, where comically gerrymandered districts are drawn up in states like Texas to benefit Republicans.

Nate Silver's predictions show a big shift in the governor's races.

As long as the Democrats can retain a hard corps of 40 true blue Senators, they should be able to stalemate the GOP in the House. Rightardia would expect the Democratic timidity to cease and the Senators to start playing some hardball like the GOP did in the Senate after the 2008 elections.

Screw bipartisanship: what is good for the goose is good for the gander!

We plan to judge the Democratic senate by the number of filibusters and cloture votes that occur. We will not contribute funds to the DSCC if they behave like a bunch of vacillating wussies after the election.

Intrade has a great run down on the key Senate races. Harry Reid will be defeated in Nevada due to an influx of out of state money to help Tea Bagger, Sharon Angle. Russ Feingold will also be defeated. Rand Paul has been leading in Kentucky for a long time. Barbara Boxer will defeat Carly Fiorina in California. We also expect Jerry Brown to defeat Meg Whitman. Christine O'Donnell never had any change of winning in Delaware.